Baseball Underdog System

Spreading the Truth About Point Spreads

Gamblers love their favorites. Oddsmakers put a point spread on a game, and also the natural tendency of many longtime bettors would be to think this represents just how much a group is”favorite” over the next to win the match.

Of course, it often has little to do with this, since oddsmakers put the spreads based on public perception with the sole objective of getting 50 percent of bettors to wager on each group, therefore”the home” comes out ahead regardless of whether the favorite or the underdog triumphs.

A prime example is the 2003 Super Bowl, where oddsmakers all across the country made the aging nonetheless offensive-oriented Oakland Raiders 4.5-point favorites within the youthful, defense-minded Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Avid followers of soccer saw great value in this spread, knowing that defense most often wins big contests. But fans adore offense, not defense, and lovers who bet love favorites.

Thus, many bettors stuck their heads in the sand and then plunked down their money on the Raiders. Some sportsbooks reported bets on Oakland -4.5 outweighing those on Tampa Bay +4.5 by an astonishing 9-1 ratio. In the end, the Buccaneers blasted the Raiders, and most novels made out like bandits, since too few gamblers put enough stock in the value of underdogs.

In +4.5, Tampa Bay virtually settled the affair before halftime, mounting a 17-point lead, since the only time a Super Bowl team has rallied from a 10-point shortage to win was in 1988, when Washington scored the last six touchdowns in a 42-10 trouncing of Denver.

Of course, sports fans and gamblers can be forgiven when they have a deeply ingrained misconception of what point spreads represent. Bear in mind, the media — especially TV and radio broadcasters — must tap-dance around the issue of gambling, as it is illegal in 99% of the U.S.. In fact, if broadcasters mention that the point spread in any way, it may be in death, for example,”The Vikings are favored by a touchdown over the Packers.”

The significant hypocrisy is that point spreads, especially on football and basketball, may be found in almost every newspaper in the country, even those hundreds of miles from the nearest legal casino or sportsbook.

Shopping For Baseball Bargains

When I was extolling the virtues of gambling on baseball (and hockey) in the prior chapter, I intentionally neglected to mention that a lot of the value on betting moneylines comes from the financial upside of moving with underdogs. I waited to get to this until now, knowing this chapter is devoted entirely to the subject.

I never fully understood the power of underdogs until I met Andrew at Vegas. He is an expert gambler but”functions” only 6 months per year, during baseball season. Andrew resides — lives well — on the money he makes during the season, averaging about $20,000 profit a month.

Remarkably enough, he does not work that hard on earning money during baseball season. All told, it requires Andrew approximately 15 minutes every morning to make his picks for the afternoon, he then goes and plays with a round of golf and can be home with the wife and kids by mid-afternoon.

Once I saw the sort of money he was making and how simple he seemed to do it, I told Andrew I needed to understand his method. At first he was reluctant, like a grandmother with her key, prize-winning peach pie recipe. But, like most people having a great secret, he eventually spilled the beans.

It ends up, he bets only on baseball and that he bets only on underdogs. And, as I saidit takes him time to determine who he is betting each day than it will for him to get in the first tee into the second hole on the golf program. Much less time, in reality, since he’s not much of a golfer.

Now I’m going to teach you that his secret, which I have modified slightly to maximize gains. I call that, fittingly, The Baseball Underdog System.

The Set-Up

Each of my 12 Money-Management Programs are composed of a Series of stakes that are either predetermined with me or can be immediately calculated by you using a Formula I will provide you.

For the purposes of our cases in this chapter, all bets are at varying moneyline odds, which is clarified with every scenario.

The Program

The Baseball Underdog System is based on a law of averages demonstrating that, within the long term, MLB underdogs overcome favorites about 4 matches from 9 (roughly 44% of the time). Even with moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money — meaning at +130 you lay $10 to win 13 — you need to rack up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses daily to produce significant gains.

By way of example, let’s assume you bet $10 on each of 9 underdogs now, with every getting +130 moneyline odds. Should you win 4 matches, you gain $13 per $52 total. But the $50 you lose when 5 favorites win provides you with a slim $2 profit overall. So Rather than simply betting on the underdogs in every match, you must weed out around two-thirds of those matches by after my 3 simple criteria:

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