For the uninitiated, betting on the cash line means betting on which team you think will win the game. The money line is adjusted based on the spread to help risk is mitigated by novels.
By way of example, a favored of four points in the NBA could have a money line of around -184. As a consequence, that you would have to bet $184 to win $100 in the event that you bet on that team to win.
To get underdogs it works a bit differently. A underdog in the NBA would have a money line. This means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they were to win the game outright.
Converting NBA Spreads to Their Authentic Money Lines What I am really interested in is whether money line betting in the NBA is rewarding. I moved over the results of over 20,000 games to find out how teams have performed on the cash line. I wanted to see whether it is well worth taking at any different spreads.
The graph below shows what the cash line for NBA games at every spread needs to be based on the results of over 28,000 NBA games. It is necessary to be aware that these will be the fair market values for each money line. Sportsbooks do not provide fair market odds (otherwise they’d find it difficult to turn a profit). This way we could use the data to determine potential opportunities to take the money line when it isn’t correctly priced. Since we’ve taken their built in edge out of each probability, we could feel confident that we’re getting real value when the cash line posted in our publication is better than the cost in the chart.
The more common the spread, the more accurate the win percentage is going to be. We have excluded spreads with less than 100 games to look at, but in fact you’re better off considering those with a sample size of 500 or more games.
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