For the uninitiated, gambling on the money line simply means betting on which group you think will win the match. The cash line is corrected based on the spread to help novels mitigate risk.
For instance, a favorite of four points in the NBA might have a money lineup of approximately -184. As a consequence, that you would need to bet $184 to win $100 if you bet on that group to win.
For underdogs it works a bit differently. A underdog in the NBA could have a money line. What this means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they had been to win the match outright.
Converting NBA Spreads for Their True Money Lines What I’m really interested in is whether or not money line gambling in the NBA is rewarding. I went over the outcomes of over 20,000 games to find out how teams have performed on the money line. I wished to see if it’s worth taking at any spreads.
The graph below demonstrates what the money line for NBA games at each spread should be dependent upon the outcomes of over 28,000 NBA games. It is necessary to note that these are the fair market values for every money line. Sportsbooks don’t provide fair market odds (otherwise they would find it tough to turn a profit). This way we can use the information to identify potential opportunities to take the money line if it isn’t properly priced. Since we have taken their built in edge from each probability, we can feel confident that we’re getting real value if the money line posted at our book is far better than the cost in the graph.
The more common the spread, the more precise the win percentage is going to be. We have excluded spreads with less than 100 games to look at, but in reality you are better off contemplating those using a sample size of 500 or more matches.
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